Well y’all, the Electoral College has met. Joe Biden looks to become the 46th president of the United States of America. The mainstream media, BLM, big tech, and the Washington Swamp won this round. The political establishment slayed the populism of the left (Bernie Sander) and of the right (Donald Trump).
For this post, I am not looking to discuss election fraud and Big Tech censorship. That might be a future post. Instead, I am more interested in discussing the future of the GOP and President Trump. My question is this: who will become the face of the GOP post-2020?
I think that there are three potential scenarios for the Republican party and President Trump over the next several years. I ranked these scenarios in order of least likely to happen (#1) to most likely to happen (#3). I am not a betting man and neither should you. Please don’t bank on these scenarios as being the only possible outcomes for the GOP. If 2020 has taught us one thing, it’s that we can expect the unexpected to happen. So, here’s the countdown.
1. Trump runs again in 2024
I rank this scenario as being the least likely to happen. Currently, President Trump has not given any specific signals that he plans on running again for the presidency in 2024. That being said, President Trump is only one tweet away from making a bombshell announcement.
If President Trump does decide to run for the presidency in 2024, he probably believes that two factors will happen. First, he thinks that he will easily win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Secondly. President Trump thinks that he has a solid chance of defeating Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election. If President Trump does not believe that either of these circumstances are likely, then we can doubt that he will decide to run again.
I doubt that any current Republican could defeat President Trump in the 2024 Republican primaries for the presidential nomination. According to a Politico poll from late November, a majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (about 53%) would support President Trump in a hypothetical 2024 Republican primary. Do we really think that Mitt Romney or Ben Sasse would defeat President Trump in a primary? Yeah, give me a break. The 2024 GOP nomination shouldn’t be an issue.
However, I think that Trump’s primary reason to not run in 2024 is that he doesn’t have much to gain. Trump gave up a lot of money, time, and positive media coverage when he ran for the Republican nomination in 2016. If he becomes president again, he and his family would return to constant attacks from the news media, the Washington establishment, and academia.
President Trump’s age might be another reason as to why he would not run again. He’ll turn 78 years old in 2024. He’s no spring chicken anymore. To be fair, Joe Biden will be 82 if he plans to run for reelection in 2024. Overall, I doubt that age will be the deciding factor in Trump’s decision.
2. Trump exits politics like the gunslinger Shane
For anyone who doesn’t watch old movies, Shane is a 1953 western film. In the movie, the main character Shane is a gunslinger who helps a group of homesteaders defeat a notorious cattle baron. At the end of the movie, Shane rides into the sunset rather than staying with the homesteaders. As a gunslinger, he knows that he is a dying breed who’s time has come. The civilized farmers needed a outsider like Shane to solve their problems with the cattle baron. Nonetheless, those same farmers wanted him gone once the deed was done. A civilized society no longer had a place for a rugged individual like Shane.
I can’t take credit for comparing Trump to the character Shane. In an article from National Review, historian Victor Davis Hanson aptly compared Trump to the tragic-hero Shane. He pointed out that we—the American people—called on President Trump to solve seemingly unsolvable issues—mass illegal immigration, deindustrialization, the “forever wars” in the Middle East, and a stagnant economy. In the 2020 election, we decided to reject Trump like Shane. The American electorate—especially suburban voters—believed that we no longer needed Trump. He solved our problems; now, so now he needs to go! We were glad for him to fix our problems, but we don’t want to deal with his tweets and “unpresidential behavior” (whatever that means).
In this scenario, Trump decides to bow out from politics entirely. He does not run for the presidency in 2024 because is no longer appreciated by the political party and the country that he helped in so many ways. If Trump fades into the background, then we can anticipate an Establishment Republican—such as Mitt Romney, Nikki Haley, or Marco Rubio—to become the GOP’s 2024 nominee. Of all the scenarios, this one should frighten Trump supporters the most. In essence, Trump’s impact on the Republican party would become negligible.
3. Trump becomes the GOP’s Consigliere
Anyone a fan of The Godfather? A Consigliere was the title for a Mafia boss’s main advisor back in the day. In the third scenario, President Trump still decides not to run in 2024. Yet, he would still act as an unofficial head of the GOP until a nominee is selected for the 2024 presidential race.
If Trump were to continue to influence the GOP for the next 4+ years, we should assume that the GOP nominee in 2024 would act as a torch-bearer for the Trump agenda—similar to how people viewed George H.W. Bush as the continuation of the Reagan presidency (even though he was not in reality; that’s a discussion for another day). A pro-Trump Republican—such as Don Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, or Josh Hawley—would likely become the 2024 GOP nominee in this timeline.
I believe that this scenario is the most likely to occur as it offers high upside with little risk. The downside is much higher in scenario 1 (i.e. he runs again), and the benefit is quite low in scenario 2 (i.e. he leaves the political scene). Therefore, my assumption is that Trump chooses scenario 3. Watch me be completely wrong on this one.
I know this post was pretty long, but kudos to everyone who got through it completely.
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