On the Horizon
Two huge problems are lurking on the horizon for American society. These two issues are connected: the marriage rate and the fertility rate.
You may wonder: what’s the big deal? Why do abstract concepts like marriage and fertility rates matter? Both questions are understandable. So, I’ll show you how important these two numbers are to the future of this nation.
Before we go further, I just want to point out that Bill Gates is wrong. Many intellectuals like Bill Gates claim that world is going to experience a population boom in the coming century. According to these “intellectuals”, this population boom will supposedly lead to war, famine, mass starvation, and many other problems.
That’s blatantly incorrect. The scientific research journal Lancet projects that the world’s population will actually decline to 8.8 billion in 2100 after peaking to 9.7 billion in the 2060s. In fact, 183 of 195 countries on Earth will have fertility rates below replacement level (i.e. 2.1 children per woman).
Well, it looks like we have the opposite problem in our hands. It looks the United States and most other countries will have to deal with a demographic winter looming. The COVID-19 pandemic sure didn’t help since it led to a global decline births across the world—further exacerbating incoming demographic issues. In the United States, COVID-19 recession is responsible for about half a million less babies being born in 2020.
Nevertheless, let’s take a dive into the importance of marriage and children.
Love and Marriage
First off, let’s start with marriage. Why do we need to “Make Marriage Great Again”?
Without question, married two-parent household (i.e. the biological father and mother mind you) is the best way to raise children. The evidence is overwhelming.
Children living with married parents are less likely to go to jail, become a teenage parent, live in poverty, and abuse drugs. On the other hand, they’re more likely to attend college and have higher incomes.
Furthermore, families are the bedrock of a nation. Weak families will mean that something else will have to take their place. People want security and safety. When families are weak and society is chaotic, the government will become more powerful. Just look at inner-city America. The government has taken the place of father figures for many minority families in urban America. So, strong families are a bulwark against bigger, more intrusive government.
Finally, married people are generally happier than unmarried people. Of course, marriage can be tough at times. Married couples have their share of ups and downs. Yet, they report having significantly more satisfied lives than unmarried Americans.
Think about the Children
Fewer babies are not a sign of a healthy nation.
You’ve probably heard that social security will become unsustainable if there aren’t enough young people in the workforce. Sure, that fact is true. But, no one is going to want to have more kids in order to save social security.
In short, a society without children is an economically stagnant society
An aging society typically have lower levels of entrepreneurship. Less economic growth occurs in aging nations compared to countries with high-birth rates.
But more importantly than economics, societies with low birth rates are less dynamic—spiritually, intellectually, etc.
The Declining American birth rate is one of main culprits for lower American Church attendance. American Christians for the last few generations did not have enough children to sustain their churches, and most of the kids they did have stopped going to Church. On a side note, I might dedicate a future post to this topic.
One last point about children: childless adults are becoming a major problem in America. There will soon be millions of elderly Americans who never had children that don’t have anyone to take care of them. Personally, I don’t want to grow old and not have anyone who’ll come visit me. Having children is a solid way to prevent this sad reality.
Trends in Marriage & Fertility
Now, let’s move onto what’s the future of marriage and childrearing in the United States.
Here’s a shocking number: around 25% of Millennials will never marry—according to the Pew Research Center. Furthermore, demographers project an even higher percentage of Zoomers (Gen Z: my generation) will never marry. The future is not so bright when it comes to marriage rates for Millennials and Gen Z.
For the overall American populace, the marriage rate is at the lowest at in recorded history (i.e. since 1900). Per 1000 Americans, only 6.5 people were married in 2018. Compare that number to 10.6 in 1980 and 8.2 in 2000. The graph below displays the declining marriage rate trend in America from 1900 to 2018.
All right, you might think that the fertility rate might paint a rosier picture than future marriage rates. Unfortunately, that notion isn’t the case.
In 20202, the US birth rate sunk to a record low 1.6 children per woman. That’s about 24% below the replacement level birth rate of 2.1! That statistic means that our nation is destined to shrink unless more immigration takes place (a band-aid solution to the problem) or Americans start having more children. Either way, something’s got to give way.
Unfortunately, there’s no sign that the American birth rate will stop declining any time soon.
This post might make you, the reader, a little melancholy. Sure, the topic isn’t super upbeat. But, macro-level trends do not necessarily determine one’s individual life. You can still get married and have several kids even though other people aren’t. Even with a tough topic like this one, there’s still a silver lining to be found.